The envelope, please...

Although it's more than a week away, I can't help but post my Oscar predictions. This year, unlike any other year in recent memory, most of the big races are too-close-to-call, which will make for a fascinating showdown on February 27.

In the style of the great critics over at the New York Times, I'll give you three assessements with each major category: Who Will Win, Who Should Win, and Who Should Have Been Nominated.

I'm very excited about this year's race despite what others consider a lackluster year for film. Now, gazing into my crystal ball...

BEST ACTOR
Who Will Win: Jamie Foxx, Ray. You just can't stop him. The closest thing to competition is surprise nominee Clint Eastwood, who, like Hilary Swank, could ride the unstoppable popularity of Million Dollar Baby.
Who Should Win: Foxx should win. Performances as oustanding as his don't show up on the screen often.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Forget Paul Giamatti, the real oversight this year was Jim Carrey. His work in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind is unparalleled brilliance, plain and simple.

BEST ACTRESS
Who Will Win: This year, three outcomes have set the stage for the closest race. The most likely (unfortunately) is that the occasionally brilliant Hilary Swank will ride the coattails of Million Dollar Baby and claim an inexplicable second defeat of Annette Bening (Being Julia). Or, Bening's friendships with the older Academy members could endear them to give her an award she should have won for American Beauty five years ago. Or, British awards champ Imelda Staunton could prove a major upset by taking home the gold for Vera Drake. I suppose a fourth scenario exists in which those three split all the votes, leaving a much-deserving Kate Winslet to take home her first Oscar. But that's highy unlikely. Loathe as I am to admit it, watch for Swank to win.
Who Should Win: If you couldn't tell from my tone (not to mention two other posts), I'm rooting for Annette Bening. Yes, Being Julia was a weak film. But how much more impressive is it for an amazing actress to take a so-so movie and make it brilliant solely because of her performance (versus an actress whose movie is receiving all the buzz, not her performance)?
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Another overlooked actress, Laura Linney, gave a nuanced performance in the little-seen P.S. co-starring Topher Grace. Had she taken Imelda Staunton's place, I wouldn't have minded (even though thousands of stuffy critics would have lept from their office windows).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Will Win: This is also a tough call, but it comes down to a three-way race between Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby), Thomas Haden Church (Sideways) and Clive Owen (Closer). Freeman is the likely choice, thanks to a fistful of publicity, but his chief competitors have won their fair share of big critic's awards.
Who Should Win: It's unfair to call Clive Owen's performance "supporting" because his is the best of the movie. Displaying far more range than anyone else in the category, his fully realized performance was one of 2004's best.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: If any of today's adult actors could capture half the wonder of acting as evidenced by Finding Neverland child prodigy Freddie Highmore, the cinema would be a better place.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Will Win: It comes down to Cate Blanchett (The Aviator) and Virginia Madsen (Sideways), but look for Blanchett to prevail...unless Hollywood's love of young ingenues finds a surprise win for Natalie Portman (Closer).
Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett. What does this genius have to do to win an Oscar?
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Regina King, Ray. She's one of Hollywood's most underestimated chameleons, and she fired the passions of Jamie Foxx's star-making performance.

BEST DIRECTOR
Who Will Win: This two-way race is solely between Martin Scorsese (The Aviator) and Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby).
Who Should Win: Marty. With a resume boasting Raging Bull, it's a crime he's never won.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Michel Gondry, whose vision made Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind the year's most visually compelling film.

BEST PICTURE
Who Will Win: As with the Best Director race, it's down to the wire for The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby, although the latter has packed a mean punch at most pre-Oscar awards shows.
Who Should Win: Even though I cited Million Dollar Baby as one of the year's best (and still stick with that decision), I'm growing tired of its relatively undeserved buzz. In other words, it was good, but not even in the same league as The Aviator.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind is not only one of the year's best, it is also one of the finest forms of American cinema ever.