The Oscar race: an overview:

After the tedious night that was the Golden Globes, I have my Oscar will-win list narrowed down to two in most categories. Once the nominees are announced, I will obviously have a firmer stance. But for now, here's who will win. Because I said so.
In the Best Picture category, Brokeback Mountain is pretty much unstoppable...unless Crash can ride its warm following to a win. Best Actor will go to either Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote or Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain . Best Actress is guaranteed to either Felicity Huffman's work in Transamerica or Reese Witherspoon's for Walk the Line. Supporting Actor will go to Clooney (Syriana) or Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man), and Supporting Actress will go to Rachel Weisz (Constant Gardener) or Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain).